Modèle d’évaluation des immobilisations (CAPM)
Le modèle d’évaluation des immobilisations (MEDAF) indique quel devrait être le taux de rendement attendu ou requis pour les actifs risqués tels que les actions ordinaires de Disney.
Taux de rendement
Walt Disney Co., taux de rendement mensuels
| Walt Disney Co. (DIS) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Date | PrixDIS,t1 | DividendeDIS,t1 | RDIS,t2 | PrixS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 31 oct. 2017 | $97.81 | 2,575.26 | ||||
| 1. | 30 nov. 2017 | $104.82 | 7.17% | 2,647.58 | 2.81% | |
| 2. | 31 déc. 2017 | $107.51 | $0.84 | 3.37% | 2,673.61 | 0.98% |
| 3. | 31 janv. 2018 | $108.67 | 1.08% | 2,823.81 | 5.62% | |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | 31 août 2023 | $83.68 | -5.86% | 4,507.66 | -1.77% | |
| 71. | 30 sept. 2023 | $81.05 | -3.14% | 4,288.05 | -4.87% | |
| Moyenne (R): | 0.21% | 0.85% | ||||
| Écart type: | 9.39% | 5.13% | ||||
| Walt Disney Co. (DIS) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | Date | PrixDIS,t1 | DividendeDIS,t1 | RDIS,t2 | PrixS&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 31 oct. 2017 | $97.81 | 2,575.26 | ||||
| 1. | 30 nov. 2017 | $104.82 | 7.17% | 2,647.58 | 2.81% | |
| 2. | 31 déc. 2017 | $107.51 | $0.84 | 3.37% | 2,673.61 | 0.98% |
| 3. | 31 janv. 2018 | $108.67 | 1.08% | 2,823.81 | 5.62% | |
| 4. | 28 févr. 2018 | $103.16 | -5.07% | 2,713.83 | -3.89% | |
| 5. | 31 mars 2018 | $100.44 | -2.64% | 2,640.87 | -2.69% | |
| 6. | 30 avr. 2018 | $100.33 | -0.11% | 2,648.05 | 0.27% | |
| 7. | 31 mai 2018 | $99.47 | -0.86% | 2,705.27 | 2.16% | |
| 8. | 30 juin 2018 | $104.81 | 5.37% | 2,718.37 | 0.48% | |
| 9. | 31 juil. 2018 | $113.56 | $0.84 | 9.15% | 2,816.29 | 3.60% |
| 10. | 31 août 2018 | $112.02 | -1.36% | 2,901.52 | 3.03% | |
| 11. | 30 sept. 2018 | $116.94 | 4.39% | 2,913.98 | 0.43% | |
| 12. | 31 oct. 2018 | $114.83 | -1.80% | 2,711.74 | -6.94% | |
| 13. | 30 nov. 2018 | $115.49 | 0.57% | 2,760.17 | 1.79% | |
| 14. | 31 déc. 2018 | $109.65 | $0.88 | -4.29% | 2,506.85 | -9.18% |
| 15. | 31 janv. 2019 | $111.52 | 1.71% | 2,704.10 | 7.87% | |
| 16. | 28 févr. 2019 | $112.84 | 1.18% | 2,784.49 | 2.97% | |
| 17. | 31 mars 2019 | $111.03 | -1.60% | 2,834.40 | 1.79% | |
| 18. | 30 avr. 2019 | $136.97 | 23.36% | 2,945.83 | 3.93% | |
| 19. | 31 mai 2019 | $132.04 | -3.60% | 2,752.06 | -6.58% | |
| 20. | 30 juin 2019 | $139.64 | 5.76% | 2,941.76 | 6.89% | |
| 21. | 31 juil. 2019 | $143.01 | $0.88 | 3.04% | 2,980.38 | 1.31% |
| 22. | 31 août 2019 | $137.26 | -4.02% | 2,926.46 | -1.81% | |
| 23. | 30 sept. 2019 | $130.32 | -5.06% | 2,976.74 | 1.72% | |
| 24. | 31 oct. 2019 | $129.92 | -0.31% | 3,037.56 | 2.04% | |
| 25. | 30 nov. 2019 | $151.58 | 16.67% | 3,140.98 | 3.40% | |
| 26. | 31 déc. 2019 | $144.63 | $0.88 | -4.00% | 3,230.78 | 2.86% |
| 27. | 31 janv. 2020 | $138.31 | -4.37% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% | |
| 28. | 29 févr. 2020 | $117.65 | -14.94% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% | |
| 29. | 31 mars 2020 | $96.60 | -17.89% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% | |
| 30. | 30 avr. 2020 | $108.15 | 11.96% | 2,912.43 | 12.68% | |
| 31. | 31 mai 2020 | $117.30 | 8.46% | 3,044.31 | 4.53% | |
| 32. | 30 juin 2020 | $111.51 | -4.94% | 3,100.29 | 1.84% | |
| 33. | 31 juil. 2020 | $116.94 | 4.87% | 3,271.12 | 5.51% | |
| 34. | 31 août 2020 | $131.87 | 12.77% | 3,500.31 | 7.01% | |
| 35. | 30 sept. 2020 | $124.08 | -5.91% | 3,363.00 | -3.92% | |
| 36. | 31 oct. 2020 | $121.25 | -2.28% | 3,269.96 | -2.77% | |
| 37. | 30 nov. 2020 | $148.01 | 22.07% | 3,621.63 | 10.75% | |
| 38. | 31 déc. 2020 | $181.18 | 22.41% | 3,756.07 | 3.71% | |
| 39. | 31 janv. 2021 | $168.17 | -7.18% | 3,714.24 | -1.11% | |
| 40. | 28 févr. 2021 | $189.04 | 12.41% | 3,811.15 | 2.61% | |
| 41. | 31 mars 2021 | $184.52 | -2.39% | 3,972.89 | 4.24% | |
| 42. | 30 avr. 2021 | $186.02 | 0.81% | 4,181.17 | 5.24% | |
| 43. | 31 mai 2021 | $178.65 | -3.96% | 4,204.11 | 0.55% | |
| 44. | 30 juin 2021 | $175.77 | -1.61% | 4,297.50 | 2.22% | |
| 45. | 31 juil. 2021 | $176.02 | 0.14% | 4,395.26 | 2.27% | |
| 46. | 31 août 2021 | $181.30 | 3.00% | 4,522.68 | 2.90% | |
| 47. | 30 sept. 2021 | $169.17 | -6.69% | 4,307.54 | -4.76% | |
| 48. | 31 oct. 2021 | $169.07 | -0.06% | 4,605.38 | 6.91% | |
| 49. | 30 nov. 2021 | $144.90 | -14.30% | 4,567.00 | -0.83% | |
| 50. | 31 déc. 2021 | $154.89 | 6.89% | 4,766.18 | 4.36% | |
| 51. | 31 janv. 2022 | $142.97 | -7.70% | 4,515.55 | -5.26% | |
| 52. | 28 févr. 2022 | $148.46 | 3.84% | 4,373.94 | -3.14% | |
| 53. | 31 mars 2022 | $137.16 | -7.61% | 4,530.41 | 3.58% | |
| 54. | 30 avr. 2022 | $111.63 | -18.61% | 4,131.93 | -8.80% | |
| 55. | 31 mai 2022 | $110.44 | -1.07% | 4,132.15 | 0.01% | |
| 56. | 30 juin 2022 | $94.40 | -14.52% | 3,785.38 | -8.39% | |
| 57. | 31 juil. 2022 | $106.10 | 12.39% | 4,130.29 | 9.11% | |
| 58. | 31 août 2022 | $112.08 | 5.64% | 3,955.00 | -4.24% | |
| 59. | 30 sept. 2022 | $94.33 | -15.84% | 3,585.62 | -9.34% | |
| 60. | 31 oct. 2022 | $106.54 | 12.94% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% | |
| 61. | 30 nov. 2022 | $97.87 | -8.14% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| 62. | 31 déc. 2022 | $86.88 | -11.23% | 3,839.50 | -5.90% | |
| 63. | 31 janv. 2023 | $108.49 | 24.87% | 4,076.60 | 6.18% | |
| 64. | 28 févr. 2023 | $99.61 | -8.19% | 3,970.15 | -2.61% | |
| 65. | 31 mars 2023 | $100.13 | 0.52% | 4,109.31 | 3.51% | |
| 66. | 30 avr. 2023 | $102.50 | 2.37% | 4,169.48 | 1.46% | |
| 67. | 31 mai 2023 | $87.96 | -14.19% | 4,179.83 | 0.25% | |
| 68. | 30 juin 2023 | $89.28 | 1.50% | 4,376.86 | 4.71% | |
| 69. | 31 juil. 2023 | $88.89 | -0.44% | 4,588.96 | 4.85% | |
| 70. | 31 août 2023 | $83.68 | -5.86% | 4,507.66 | -1.77% | |
| 71. | 30 sept. 2023 | $81.05 | -3.14% | 4,288.05 | -4.87% | |
| Moyenne (R): | 0.21% | 0.85% | ||||
| Écart type: | 9.39% | 5.13% | ||||
Tout afficher
1 Données en dollars américains par action ordinaire, ajustées pour tenir compte des fractionnements et des dividendes en actions.
2 Taux de rendement des actions ordinaires de DIS au cours de la période t.
3 Taux de rendement de l’indice S&P 500 (l’indicateur du portefeuille de marché) au cours de la période t.
Variance et covariance
Walt Disney Co., calcul de la variance et de la covariance des rendements
| t | Date | RDIS,t | RS&P 500,t | (RDIS,t–RDIS)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RDIS,t–RDIS)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 30 nov. 2017 | 7.17% | 2.81% | 48.39 | 3.83 | 13.61 |
| 2. | 31 déc. 2017 | 3.37% | 0.98% | 9.97 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| 3. | 31 janv. 2018 | 1.08% | 5.62% | 0.75 | 22.72 | 4.14 |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | 31 août 2023 | -5.86% | -1.77% | 36.86 | 6.88 | 15.92 |
| 71. | 30 sept. 2023 | -3.14% | -4.87% | 11.24 | 32.75 | 19.19 |
| Total (Σ): | 6,172.98 | 1,838.69 | 2,310.12 | |||
| t | Date | RDIS,t | RS&P 500,t | (RDIS,t–RDIS)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RDIS,t–RDIS)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 30 nov. 2017 | 7.17% | 2.81% | 48.39 | 3.83 | 13.61 |
| 2. | 31 déc. 2017 | 3.37% | 0.98% | 9.97 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| 3. | 31 janv. 2018 | 1.08% | 5.62% | 0.75 | 22.72 | 4.14 |
| 4. | 28 févr. 2018 | -5.07% | -3.89% | 27.89 | 22.52 | 25.06 |
| 5. | 31 mars 2018 | -2.64% | -2.69% | 8.11 | 12.53 | 10.08 |
| 6. | 30 avr. 2018 | -0.11% | 0.27% | 0.10 | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| 7. | 31 mai 2018 | -0.86% | 2.16% | 1.14 | 1.71 | -1.40 |
| 8. | 30 juin 2018 | 5.37% | 0.48% | 26.61 | 0.13 | -1.89 |
| 9. | 31 juil. 2018 | 9.15% | 3.60% | 79.92 | 7.57 | 24.59 |
| 10. | 31 août 2018 | -1.36% | 3.03% | 2.45 | 4.73 | -3.41 |
| 11. | 30 sept. 2018 | 4.39% | 0.43% | 17.49 | 0.18 | -1.76 |
| 12. | 31 oct. 2018 | -1.80% | -6.94% | 4.06 | 60.71 | 15.70 |
| 13. | 30 nov. 2018 | 0.57% | 1.79% | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.34 |
| 14. | 31 déc. 2018 | -4.29% | -9.18% | 20.30 | 100.58 | 45.18 |
| 15. | 31 janv. 2019 | 1.71% | 7.87% | 2.24 | 49.24 | 10.49 |
| 16. | 28 févr. 2019 | 1.18% | 2.97% | 0.95 | 4.50 | 2.07 |
| 17. | 31 mars 2019 | -1.60% | 1.79% | 3.29 | 0.89 | -1.71 |
| 18. | 30 avr. 2019 | 23.36% | 3.93% | 536.05 | 9.49 | 71.31 |
| 19. | 31 mai 2019 | -3.60% | -6.58% | 14.51 | 55.19 | 28.30 |
| 20. | 30 juin 2019 | 5.76% | 6.89% | 30.75 | 36.50 | 33.50 |
| 21. | 31 juil. 2019 | 3.04% | 1.31% | 8.03 | 0.21 | 1.31 |
| 22. | 31 août 2019 | -4.02% | -1.81% | 17.90 | 7.08 | 11.26 |
| 23. | 30 sept. 2019 | -5.06% | 1.72% | 27.74 | 0.75 | -4.57 |
| 24. | 31 oct. 2019 | -0.31% | 2.04% | 0.27 | 1.42 | -0.62 |
| 25. | 30 nov. 2019 | 16.67% | 3.40% | 270.98 | 6.52 | 42.03 |
| 26. | 31 déc. 2019 | -4.00% | 2.86% | 17.76 | 4.03 | -8.46 |
| 27. | 31 janv. 2020 | -4.37% | -0.16% | 20.98 | 1.03 | 4.64 |
| 28. | 29 févr. 2020 | -14.94% | -8.41% | 229.45 | 85.79 | 140.30 |
| 29. | 31 mars 2020 | -17.89% | -12.51% | 327.70 | 178.57 | 241.91 |
| 30. | 30 avr. 2020 | 11.96% | 12.68% | 137.97 | 140.02 | 138.99 |
| 31. | 31 mai 2020 | 8.46% | 4.53% | 68.07 | 13.52 | 30.34 |
| 32. | 30 juin 2020 | -4.94% | 1.84% | 26.49 | 0.98 | -5.08 |
| 33. | 31 juil. 2020 | 4.87% | 5.51% | 21.71 | 21.71 | 21.71 |
| 34. | 31 août 2020 | 12.77% | 7.01% | 157.68 | 37.89 | 77.29 |
| 35. | 30 sept. 2020 | -5.91% | -3.92% | 37.43 | 22.79 | 29.21 |
| 36. | 31 oct. 2020 | -2.28% | -2.77% | 6.21 | 13.09 | 9.01 |
| 37. | 30 nov. 2020 | 22.07% | 10.75% | 477.85 | 98.08 | 216.48 |
| 38. | 31 déc. 2020 | 22.41% | 3.71% | 492.85 | 8.18 | 63.51 |
| 39. | 31 janv. 2021 | -7.18% | -1.11% | 54.63 | 3.86 | 14.52 |
| 40. | 28 févr. 2021 | 12.41% | 2.61% | 148.83 | 3.09 | 21.45 |
| 41. | 31 mars 2021 | -2.39% | 4.24% | 6.77 | 11.51 | -8.83 |
| 42. | 30 avr. 2021 | 0.81% | 5.24% | 0.36 | 19.28 | 2.65 |
| 43. | 31 mai 2021 | -3.96% | 0.55% | 17.41 | 0.09 | 1.26 |
| 44. | 30 juin 2021 | -1.61% | 2.22% | 3.32 | 1.88 | -2.50 |
| 45. | 31 juil. 2021 | 0.14% | 2.27% | 0.00 | 2.03 | -0.10 |
| 46. | 31 août 2021 | 3.00% | 2.90% | 7.78 | 4.19 | 5.71 |
| 47. | 30 sept. 2021 | -6.69% | -4.76% | 47.62 | 31.45 | 38.70 |
| 48. | 31 oct. 2021 | -0.06% | 6.91% | 0.07 | 36.76 | -1.63 |
| 49. | 30 nov. 2021 | -14.30% | -0.83% | 210.43 | 2.84 | 24.44 |
| 50. | 31 déc. 2021 | 6.89% | 4.36% | 44.68 | 12.32 | 23.46 |
| 51. | 31 janv. 2022 | -7.70% | -5.26% | 62.51 | 37.33 | 48.30 |
| 52. | 28 févr. 2022 | 3.84% | -3.14% | 13.17 | 15.90 | -14.47 |
| 53. | 31 mars 2022 | -7.61% | 3.58% | 61.18 | 7.43 | -21.32 |
| 54. | 30 avr. 2022 | -18.61% | -8.80% | 354.33 | 93.06 | 181.59 |
| 55. | 31 mai 2022 | -1.07% | 0.01% | 1.63 | 0.72 | 1.08 |
| 56. | 30 juin 2022 | -14.52% | -8.39% | 217.09 | 85.44 | 136.19 |
| 57. | 31 juil. 2022 | 12.39% | 9.11% | 148.44 | 68.23 | 100.64 |
| 58. | 31 août 2022 | 5.64% | -4.24% | 29.44 | 25.96 | -27.65 |
| 59. | 30 sept. 2022 | -15.84% | -9.34% | 257.51 | 103.85 | 163.53 |
| 60. | 31 oct. 2022 | 12.94% | 7.99% | 162.14 | 50.91 | 90.86 |
| 61. | 30 nov. 2022 | -8.14% | 5.38% | 69.69 | 20.47 | -37.77 |
| 62. | 31 déc. 2022 | -11.23% | -5.90% | 130.86 | 45.54 | 77.20 |
| 63. | 31 janv. 2023 | 24.87% | 6.18% | 608.27 | 28.35 | 131.31 |
| 64. | 28 févr. 2023 | -8.19% | -2.61% | 70.48 | 11.99 | 29.07 |
| 65. | 31 mars 2023 | 0.52% | 3.51% | 0.10 | 7.04 | 0.83 |
| 66. | 30 avr. 2023 | 2.37% | 1.46% | 4.65 | 0.38 | 1.32 |
| 67. | 31 mai 2023 | -14.19% | 0.25% | 207.24 | 0.36 | 8.68 |
| 68. | 30 juin 2023 | 1.50% | 4.71% | 1.67 | 14.92 | 4.98 |
| 69. | 31 juil. 2023 | -0.44% | 4.85% | 0.42 | 15.96 | -2.59 |
| 70. | 31 août 2023 | -5.86% | -1.77% | 36.86 | 6.88 | 15.92 |
| 71. | 30 sept. 2023 | -3.14% | -4.87% | 11.24 | 32.75 | 19.19 |
| Total (Σ): | 6,172.98 | 1,838.69 | 2,310.12 | |||
Tout afficher
VarianceDIS = Σ(RDIS,t–RDIS)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 6,172.98 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 88.19
VarianceS&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,838.69 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 26.27
CovarianceDIS, S&P 500 = Σ(RDIS,t–RDIS)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (71 – 1)
= 2,310.12 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 33.00
Estimation systématique des risques (β)
| VarianceDIS | 88.19 |
| VarianceS&P 500 | 26.27 |
| CovarianceDIS, S&P 500 | 33.00 |
| Coefficient de corrélationDIS, S&P 5001 | 0.69 |
| βDIS2 | 1.26 |
| αDIS3 | -0.86% |
Calculs
1 Coefficient de corrélationDIS, S&P 500
= CovarianceDIS, S&P 500 ÷ (Écart typeDIS × Écart typeS&P 500)
= 33.00 ÷ (9.39% × 5.13%)
= 0.69
2 βDIS
= CovarianceDIS, S&P 500 ÷ VarianceS&P 500
= 33.00 ÷ 26.27
= 1.26
3 αDIS
= MoyenneDIS – βDIS × MoyenneS&P 500
= 0.21% – 1.26 × 0.85%
= -0.86%
Taux de rendement attendu
| Hypothèses | ||
| Taux de rendement de LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 4.90% |
| Taux de rendement attendu du portefeuille de marché2 | E(RM) | 13.54% |
| Risque systématique lié à Disney actions ordinaires | βDIS | 1.26 |
| Taux de rendement attendu sur les actions ordinaires de Disney3 | E(RDIS) | 15.76% |
1 Moyenne non pondérée des rendements des offres sur tous les bons du Trésor américain à coupon fixe en circulation qui ne sont ni échus ni remboursables par anticipation dans moins de 10 ans (indicateur du taux de rendement sans risque).
3 E(RDIS) = RF + βDIS [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.90% + 1.26 [13.54% – 4.90%]
= 15.76%